03 February 2026

VNIRO is developing methods for assessing the dynamics of water resources in permafrost zones using mathematical modeling

On January 28, Sergei Kondratyev, a leading researcher at the St. Petersburg branch of the All-Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO), presented a paper entitled "A Methodology for Remote Assessment of the Characteristics of Unstudied Lakes in Permafrost Zones Using Satellite Information and Mathematical Modeling" at a meeting of the Earth Sciences Section of the Joint Scientific Council for Natural Sciences of the St. Petersburg Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences held at the St. Petersburg Branch of the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
 
The relevance of the research presented in the paper by the research team led by S.A. Kondratyev stems from the critical lack of understanding of the thermal, chemical, and biological parameters of the vast majority of small and medium-sized lakes (up to 100 km² in area) in the permafrost zone of the Russian Federation.
 
The methodological basis of this work is an innovative three-component framework integrating Earth remote sensing data, geostatistical data processing, and mathematical modeling of hydrothermodynamic processes in lakes. Future development of the methodology includes expanding it to include chemical and biological characteristics (oxygen regime, phytoplankton primary production, water transparency) and adapting the method to assess water resource dynamics under economic activity in the Russian Federation.
 
The combined use of satellite imagery and mathematical modeling to assess the suitability of water bodies for various types of fisheries use will overcome the current shortage of in-situ data and provide a scientific basis for the rational management of water resources in remote areas of Russia in a changing climate.
 
VNIRO Press Service